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Abstract Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability. 

Sinkholes develop on carbonate landscapes when caves collapse and can subsequently become lake-like environments if they are flooded by local groundwater. Sediment cores retrieved from sinkholes have yielded high-resolution reconstructions of past environmental change, hydroclimate, and hurricane activity. However, our understanding of the internal sedimentary processes of these systems remains incomplete. Here, we use a multiproxy approach including sedimentology (stratigraphy, coarse-grained particle density, bulk organic matter content), micropaleontology (ostracods), and geochemistry (δ13C and δ2H on n-alkanoic acids) to reconstruct evidence for paleolimnology and regional hydroclimate from a continuous stratigraphic record (Emerald Pond sinkhole) in the northern Bahamas that spans the middle to late Holocene. Basal peat at 8.9 m below modern sea level documents the maximum sea-level position at ~ 8200 cal. yr BP. Subsequent upward vertical migration of the local aquifer caused by regional sea-level rise promoted carbonate-marl deposition from ~ 8300 to 1700 cal. yr BP. A shift in coarse particle deposition and ostracods at 5500 cal. yr BP suggests some environmental change, which may be related to one or multiple internal or external drivers. Sapropel deposition from ~ 1700 to 1300 cal. yr BP indicates a fundamental change in limnology to promote increased organic matter preservation, perhaps related to the regional cooling during the Dark Ages Cold Period. We find δ2H28 values are largely invariant from 7700 to 6150 cal. yr BP suggesting a generally stable hydroclimate (mean − 133‰, 1σ = 5‰). The shift to more depleted values (− 156‰, 1σ = 19‰) at ~ 6000–4800 cal. yr BP may be linked to a weakened (eastern displaced) North Atlantic Subtropical High. Nevertheless, additional local hydroclimate records are needed to better disentangle uncertainties from either internal or external influences on the resultant measurements. 

Abstract The collapse of the Maya civilization in the late 1st/early 2nd millennium CE has been attributed to multiple internal and external causes including overpopulation, increased warfare, and environmental deterioration. Yet the role hurricanes may have played in the fracturing of Maya socio-political networks, site abandonment, and cultural reconfiguration remains unexplored. Here we present a 2200 yearlong hurricane record developed from sediment recovered from a flooded cenote on the northeastern Yucatan peninsula. The sediment archive contains fine grain autogenic carbonate interspersed with anomalous deposits of coarse carbonate material that we interpret as evidence of local hurricane activity. This interpretation is supported by the correlation between the multi-decadal distribution of recent coarse beds and the temporal distribution of modern regional landfalling storms. In total, this record allows us to reconstruct the variable hurricane conditions impacting the northern lowland Maya during the Late Preclassic, Classic, and Postclassic Periods. Strikingly, persistent above-average hurricane frequency between ~ 700 and 1450 CE encompasses the Maya Terminal Classic Phase, the declines of Chichén Itza, Cobá, and subsequent rise and fall of the Mayapán Confederacy. This suggests that hurricanes may have posed an additional environmental stressor necessary of consideration when examining the Postclassic transformation of northern Maya polities. 

Dissolution of carbonate platforms, like The Bahamas, throughout Quaternary sea-level oscillations have created mature karst landscapes that can include sinkholes and off-shore blue holes. These karst features are flooded by saline oceanic waters and meteoric-influenced groundwaters, which creates unique groundwater environments and ecosystems. Little is known about the modern benthic meiofauna, like foraminifera, in these environments or how internal hydrographic characteristics of salinity, dissolved oxygen, or pH may influence benthic habitat viability. Here we compare the total benthic foraminiferal distributions in sediment-water interface samples collected from <2 m water depth on the carbonate tidal flats, and the two subtidal blue holes Freshwater River Blue Hole and Meredith’s Blue Hole, on the leeward margin of Great Abaco Island, The Bahamas. All samples are dominated by miliolid foraminifera (i.e.,QuinqueloculinaandTriloculina), yet notable differences emerge in the secondary taxa between these two environments that allows identification of two assemblages: a Carbonate Tidal Flats Assemblage (CTFA) vs. a Blue Hole Assemblage (BHA). The CTFA includes abundant common shallow-water lagoon foraminifera (e.g.,Peneroplis,Rosalina,Rotorbis), while the BHA has higher proportions of foraminifera that are known to tolerate stressful environmental conditions of brackish and dysoxic waters elsewhere (e.g.,Pseudoeponides,Cribroelphidium,Ammonia). We also observe how the hydrographic differences between subtidal blue holes can promote different benthic habitats for foraminifera, and this is observed through differences in both agglutinated and hyaline fauna. The unique hydrographic conditions in subtidal blue holes make them great laboratories for assessing the response of benthic foraminiferal communities to extreme environmental conditions (e.g., low pH, dysoxia). 

Subsurface mixing of seawater and terrestrial-borne meteoric waters on carbonate landscapes creates karst subterranean estuaries, an area of the coastal aquifer with poorly understood carbon cycling, ecosystem functioning, and impact on submarine groundwater discharge. Caves in karst platforms facilitate water and material exchange between the marine and terrestrial environments, and their internal sedimentation patterns document long-term environmental change. Sediment records from a flooded coastal cave in Cozumel Island (Mexico) document decreasing terrestrial organic matter (OM) deposition within the karst subterranean estuary over the last ∼1,000 years, with older sediment likely exported out of the cave by intense storm events. While stable carbon isotopic values (δ 13 C org ranging from −22.5 to −27.1‰) and C:N ratios (ranging from 9.9 to 18.9) indicate that mangrove and other terrestrial detritus surrounding an inland sinkhole are the primarily sedimentary OM supply, an upcore decrease in bulk OM and enrichment of δ 13 C org values are observed. These patterns suggest that a reduction in the local mangrove habitat decreased the terrestrial particulate OM input to the cave over time. The benthic foraminiferal community in basal core sediment have higher proportions of infaunal taxa (i.e., Bolivina ) and Ammonia , and assemblages shift to increased miliolids and less infaunal taxa at the core-top sediment. The combined results suggest that a decrease in terrestrial OM through time had a concomitant impact on benthic meiofaunal habitats, potentially by impacting dissolved oxygen availability at the microhabitat scale or resource partitioning by foraminifera. The evidence presented here indicates that landscape and watershed level changes can impact ecosystem functioning within adjacent subterranean estuaries. 

Abstract Meridional shifts of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western edge create a dipole that drives hydroclimate variability in the southeastern United States and Caribbean region. Southwest displacements suppress rainfall in the southern Caribbean. Northwest displacements drive southeast United States and northern Caribbean drying. Projections for the 21st century suggest a more meridionally displaced NASH, which jeopardizes Caribbean island communities dependent on rain‐fed aquifers. While recent work indicates that Atlantic and Pacific Ocean‐atmosphere variability influenced the NASH during the instrumental period, little is known about NASH behavior and subsequent hydroclimate responses over longer timescales. To address this limitation, we developed a ∼6000‐years long rainfall record through the analysis of calcite raft deposits archived within sediments from a coastal sinkhole in the northeast Bahamas (Abaco Island). Increased (decreased) calcite raft deposition provides evidence for increased (decreased) rainfall driven by NASH variability. We use simulations from the Community Earth System Model to support this interpretation. These simulations improve our understanding of NASH behavior on timescales congruous with the reconstruction and suggest an important role for the state of the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, model simulations and a compilation of regional hydroclimate reconstructions reveal that the NASH‐driven dipole dominates northern and southern Caribbean rainfall on centennial timescales. These results bring Holocene Caribbean hydroclimate variability into sharper focus while providing important context for present and future changes to regional climate. Additionally, this study highlights the need for improved future predictions of the state of the Pacific Ocean to best inform water scarcity mitigation strategies for at‐risk Caribbean communities.